Like an elusive cat, Frank Ocean hides in plain sight. His mystery only amplifies our desire to seek him out, so when he decides to make himself seenā¦ we all take notice. In a surprise move he announced that he will be headlining Coachella 2020. Unfortunately, I wonāt be attending Coachella but I will be at another Californian music festival, Outside Lands. Hereās my attempt to see Frank Ocean by predicting the probability that he will be at Outside Lands. š¤Ā
Attendance
Taking a look at Frank Oceanās attendance record of headlining performances during his 2017 festival run, he was invited to play at 11 festivals and canceled 3 shows, making his attendance rate around 63%.
Festival
Attended
Hangout Fest 2017, Alabama
No: Production delays beyond his control
Sasquatch Festival 2017, Washington
No: Production delays beyond his control
Primavera Sound 2017, Barcelona
No: Production delays beyond his control
Northside Festival Denmark 2017, Denmark
Yes
Parklife Festival 2017, Manchester
Yes
Lovebox 2017, London
Yes
FYF Fest 2017, Los Angeles
Yes
Panorama Music Festival 2017, New York
Yes
Wayhome Music Festival 2017, Ontario
Yes
Way Out West 2017, Sweden
Yes
Flow Festival 2017, Finland
Yes
Coachella & Outside Lands
Tracking the artist overlap by percentage and headliner over the last ten years. In 2019, Coachella had a total of 178 acts. In that same year Outside Lands had 73 acts. Over the past 10 years there has been a 30% overlap in headliners between each festival. There is about an 18% chance that any given artist will appear at both festival.
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via coachella.com
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via sfoutsidelands.com
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Year
Artist Overlap
Percentage
Headliner
2009
8
16%
No
2010
7
17%
Yes: Arcade Fire
2011
9
15%
No
2012
6
8%
No
2013
19
25%
No
2014
14
18%
No
2015
15
20%
No
2016
26
25%
No
2017
17
22%
No
2018
14
18%
Yes: The Weeknd
2019
9
12%
Yes: Childish Gambino
Gollabinnie TheoremĀ
Headliners for Coachella 2020 include: Rage Against the Machine(Friday), Travis Scott(Saturday), and Frank Ocean(Sunday). Taking a closer look at the overlapping headliners from the past 10 years, we can see that there there is a trend of headliners that perform on Friday at Coachella that also perform at Outside Lands. The theorem suggests it is more probable that Rage Against the Machine will perform at both Coachella and Outside Lands.
Frank Tracker
On February 25, 2020, Frank cancelled his impendingāLittle Demonā vinyl release with an email saying:
āLittle Demonā will be replaced with a new, unreleased Frank Ocean song.
Many speculating that this new single signals the anticipated release of his third(official) studio album. He tends to emerge from the safety of his studio when he is ready to release an album. His announcement to perform at Coachella could be hinting that something is in the works. His last two albums,āChannel Orangeā andāBlondedā kicked off tours promoting the albums. These tours could point to additional shows outside of his current Coachella performance.
Frank Ocean
Attendance
Coachella & Outside Lands
Gollabinnie TheoremĀ
Frank Tracker