need to consider tree stand dynamics/changing conditions into the future, making areas more resilient to change.
building a climate smart forest economy
Explain Mauri et al. 2022(briefly and big overview, can draw on details below)
Introduce tool for exploration
[body of text]:
Climate change is already impacting peoples’ livelihoods, making it imperative that we are able to build resiliency into communities to withstand these changes. Understanding how forests will endure changing climate conditions is a key component.
In Spain, the impacts of climate change are already threatening a production of jamón ibérico, a denominación de origen product and a billion dollar industry. The most treasured of all jamón, however, is the jamón ibérico bellota, which retails more than €100 a kilo. This jamón can only be produced by purebred Black Iberian pigs that feed exclusively on acorns(orbellotas, hence the name) during the last month of their lives, and in a particular ecoregion of the country in the western Spain. In recent years, rising temperatures and decreased rainfall have meant reduced numbers of acorns form the holm oak(Quercus ilex) on which these pigs feed, which in turn reduces the weight of the pigs. Drought conditions are reducing the area total area where pigs can graze and the amount of acorns available to feed them, resulting in underweight pigs. As a result, the jamón business is proving to be unprofitable and unsustainable for many, with an expected 20 percent reduction in acorn-fed pigs this season than last.
[Placeholder: current area of holm oak in Spain]
The holm oak that these farmers rely on thrives under damp conditions, reflecting the historical weather conditions of the region. Warmer, drier conditions are slowly driving these forests to extinction. Understanding how the forests in this area are expected to change and identifying alternative species that are more suited for these drier conditions will be essential to building more resilient forests and adapting to future climatic conditions. Additionally, identifying the projected extent of impacted areas can help decision makers support policies that will help provide economic support and adaptation strategies for these pig farmers.
Now, more than ever, it is important that we focus on preparing for the future and that means improving our understanding of how the forested environment around us will change. The authors behind the EU-Trees4Fstudy, thought of exactly this, providing a valuable resource for the exploration of what the future of European forests will look like under projected climate change scenarios.
[Placeholder: chart showing evolution of selected tree species of the dataset in Spain(olive tree and other food related species)]
Simply put, the authors of produced a dataset of current and future potential distributions for 67 European tree species, by providing an ecological model(BIOMOD2, an‘Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Modeling’) the climatic and environmental constraints for each tree. Within BIOMOD2, a variety of sub-models were explored including regional climate models(RCMs) and species distribution models(SDMs), each running the data through a variety weather and species distribution scenarios. The combination of each of these model permutations within BIOMOD2 produced the bounds of suitable conditions for each tree to withstand into the future. Suitable conditions were developed using environmental data inputs like temperature, precipitation and soil type and explored under projected climate change scenarios(Representative Concentration Pathways[RCPs] 4.5 and 8.5) until the end of the century(examining three time steps: 2035, 2065, and 2095).
Scientists use these RCPs for climate modeling and research. They describe different climate future conditions, all of which may be possible depending on the volume of GHG emitted on the planet in years to come. The RCP 4.5 is described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) as a moderate scenario, where emissions peak around 2040 and the decline. Whereas the RCP 8.5 is described as the highest baseline emissions scenarios in which emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, with an anticipated temperature increase of approximately 4.3˚C by 2100(relative to pre-industrial temperatures).
[Placeholder: Fausto’s infographic for RCP scenarios]
[Text placeholder: for a simple description of Erik’s notebook findings for holm oak distribution…something along the lines of:
By exploring the model’s results for the holm oak over time we can see a decrease in its expansion from X in[time-step 1] and further anticipated loss of total area in[time-step].
]
The results of this work, provide a valuable data set for developing our understanding how the forests around us are expected to change and will be an essential component to building climate-smart forests of the future. Here at Development Seed, we are building interactive tools(i.e.,Observable notebooks and a web app) to explore the results of this scientific work so that it is more accessible for exploration and interpretation to the wider public. Returning back to our holm oak example, the model results and projected decline that we’ve observed above are a stark reminder of the impacts of climate change on the forests around us. There will be no one-size-fits-all solution for mitigating the effects of climate change on European forests, but by exploring how tree species distributions are expected to change into the future, we will be better suited to identify adaptation strategies for each.
Part 1. Climatic (Negative Impact) Story