2021/10/01 - Exchange analysis

TOTAL   :  CELO ( inflow):   3823459.12 @ 6.469536 (cUSD outflow:  24736005.28)
ARB ONLY:  CELO ( inflow):   1970286.44 @ 6.352958 (cUSD outflow:  12517146.66)
NON-ARB :  CELO ( inflow):   1853172.68 @ 6.593481 (cUSD outflow:  12218858.62)

  • ~12.5 million CELO minted through arbitrage
  • ~12.2 million CELO minted manually (mostly by Celo foundation?)
  • QUIRK: arb trades overall have provided better rates for Mento/Reserve

Non-arb traders:

0xA76df5D1caE697479fA08Afa7b0D35E182e0137a:  CELO ( inflow):    999999.55 @ 6.593992 (cUSD outflow:   6593988.98) TXs in/out: 5000/0
0x4132F04EaCfdE9E2b707667A13CB69DbC5BABb68:  CELO ( inflow):    699999.69 @ 6.733338 (cUSD outflow:   4713334.20) TXs in/out: 3500/0

ARB traders:

  • Trading against CEX:
0x4c9c42dCC8062528d87266be769bc21d9A26BDcc:  CELO ( inflow):    404434.34 @ 6.335697 (cUSD outflow:   2562373.29) TXs in/out: 5857/3423
0xA830F109678DA59D5E367F56920ED91BE863F8E2:  CELO ( inflow):    367181.18 @ 6.289144 (cUSD outflow:   2309255.44) TXs in/out: 4831/2346
0xFaF4c940351E5F68f582190D443A61374aAB984e:  CELO ( inflow):     48716.69 @ 6.243129 (cUSD outflow:    304144.58) TXs in/out: 2264/1938

  • Trading against Ubeswap
0x5853Ba0db76094f78267D0D377B543688e81F050:  CELO ( inflow):    839897.66 @ 6.336312 (cUSD outflow:   5321853.93) TXs in/out: 7994/2049
0xE8290a3E1C25d627B3301eFe011F46f70B786c3A:  CELO ( inflow):    411584.40 @ 6.400882 (cUSD outflow:   2634503.29) TXs in/out: 196/0

NOTES:
  • Trading against CEX to mint cUSD is straightforward.
  • Trading against Ubeswap (mcUSD↔CELO pool) to mint cUSD is a bit more indirect:
  • User wants to get cUSD and instead of using Mento, they use Ubeswap to sell some other token for cUSD. (it can be CELO, or it can be any of the other tokens).
  • Almost all trades that involve cUSD will generally go through CELO↔mcUSD pool no matter what the selling token is, thus dis-balancing CELO↔mcUSD pool by depleting cUSD in it.
  • ARBer comes in:
  • Sell CELO for cUSD on Mento
  • Buy mCELO with cUSD on Ubeswap
  • Essentially mint cUSD and put it in Ubeswap pool. 
  • It is interesting to see that a lot of the cUSD was essentially minted directly on chain through Ubeswap. 

Outlier/anomaly Trader:

0x38371cc4DB100815C59520bF5Ca9c8db7Faa52f0:  CELO (outflow):    113231.42 @ 6.274785 (cUSD  inflow:    710502.83) TXs in/out: 379/1606

Not sure what this account is doing. Buying CELO on chain with cUSD during times when cUSD is overpriced?